President Mahinda Rajapaksa has scored another mammoth victory by bagging the most important of all the provincial councils, the WPC with ease. It had all the trappings of a cakewalk. The UPFA won 68 out of 102 seats––the UNP 30, the JVP 03, the SLMC 02 and the Democratic Unity Alliance 01. Its victory was a foregone conclusion but that it would secure such a huge majority of 32 seats was not something many expected, though Minister Dallas Alahapperuma predicted on the eve of polls that the government would get 63 to 70 seats in the WPC.

The results suggest that if Saturday's polls had been a presidential election, the UNP's defeat would have been far worse in that people who backed the government in spite of the candidates it fielded, save a few, would have voted overwhelmingly for President Rajapaksa. The WPC would also have behaved in a similar manner in case of a General Election to strengthen the President's hands in Parliament.

What is really remarkable about Saturday's polls is that its outcome has debunked the popular belief that Proportional Representation (PR) system invariably brings about unstable administrations with razor thin majorities. A comfortable majority is an aberration under PR, which occurs due to two factors––large scale rigging and a massive wave of popularity. In 1989, President Premadasa secured a 25 seat majority in Parliament at a general election marred by unprecedented bloodshed and large scale rigging. In 1999, President Chandrika Kumaratunga obtained a majority of eight seats in the North Western Provincial Council (NWPC) by turning that province into a hellhole.

But, at the past few PC polls which were free and fair by and large, the government has secured a majority of 22 seats in the NWPC and a majority of 14 in the Central Provincial Council (CPC). What causes the tectonic plates of the electorates to shift triggering such tidal waves of popularity? It is the government's successful military campaign against terrorism, which has plagued the country for over twenty five years.

The UNP made the mistake of opposing the war and earned the wrath of the people abhorrent of terrorism. With a history of appeasing the LTTE and helping it grow stronger to the point of being able to set up a 'de facto state' in the North and the East, the UNP should have known better than to collaborate with Sri Lanka's enemies, both local and foreign, hell bent on derailing the country's war effort. Time was when the UNP could have repaired its image by endorsing the war but its leaders chose to do exactly the opposite, egged on by some foreign governments and INGOs whose partiality to the LTTE stinks to high heavens. Now, it is too late for the UNP to rectify its mistakes and it is paying for its leaders' sins.

President Rajapaksa has successfully defeated both signatories to the 2002 CFA, which almost led to the division of the country. He has militarily crippled and trapped Prabhakaran in the no-fire zone. The UNP leader has been debilitated and confined to the Colombo city. Prabhakaran lives in fear of physical elimination and Ranil runs the risk of being eliminated politically!

The Opposition shows no signs of revival. Its vote has decreased steeply as compared to 2004––in Kalutara from 35.99% to 24.6%, in Gampaha from 34% to 26% and in Colombo from 42% to 35.6%––whereas the UPFA's vote sharply increased––in Colombo from 49% to 57.7%, in Gampaha from 61.3% to 69% and in Kalutara from 57.2% to 69.3%.

The UNP has also lost its hold on some of its traditional strongholds such as the so-called Catholic belt. Negombo is a case in point. The government has won it with a huge majority of nearly 14,000 votes and its percentage stands at 59.1%. In Ja-Ela the UNP's performance was far worse; the UPFA polled 50,000 votes (65.9%) as opposed to the UNP's 23,430 votes (30.8%).

The UNP has lost all the predominantly Catholic areas in the NWP as well. It may have managed to retain a few electorates in Colombo like the Colombo Central but its majority has manifestly decreased. Such pockets of support are of little use when they are surrounded by hostile suburbs. While the UNP won the Colombo Central with a majority of about 20,000 votes, it lost Kesbewa with about 43,000 votes!

The JVP had 23 members in the last Western Provincial Council––Colombo (09), Gampaha (08) and Kalutara (06), all elected on the UPFA ticket in 2004. Today, the outfit is left with only three councillors and 2.4% of the WPC vote! That is the price it has had to pay for political miscalculations and hubris. It has got only a single seat more than the SLMC, which secured two seats.

Ironically, the President has achieved this feat, having secured the presidency in 2005 with only a wafer thin majority. He has won all the PC polls huge with ease––52% in Eastern Province, 56% in the NCP, 55% in Sabaragamuwa, 59.5% in the Central Province, 69.4% in the NWP and 64.7% in the WPC.