"Nemesis, the goddess of measure and not of revenge, keeps watch. All those who overstep the limits are pitilessly punished by her".

Sri Lanka is winning the war against the Tigers and losing battles on every other front. The state of the economy causes grave fears about the country’s capacity to escape a devastating debt trap without seeking recourse in bankruptcy, a la Argentina. The politico-psychological gap between the majority and the minorities has widened to critical levels, as demonstrated yet again by the voting patterns at the Western Provincial Council election. In the international arena, Sri Lanka is acquiring an unsavoury reputation as a pitiless bully with a penchant for childish tantrums and false promises.

The LTTE is suffering an unprecedented military defeat. The credit for this spectacular achievement belongs, in the main, to the Rajapakse administration and its single-minded determination to eliminate the Tigers. Similarly, the setbacks and debacles Sri Lanka experiences on all other fronts are, by and large, caused by the excessive policies and irrational attitudes of the Rajapakses. Only time will tell whether the price extracted from the country by the regime for the vanquishing of the Tigers, is, worth it.

In an increasingly globalised world there are realistic limits to the exercise of sovereignty by any country; these limits are more stringent for small underdeveloped countries with a tendency to mismanage affairs. That is the Lankan condition today. Thanks to a suicidal economic-financial policy, Sri Lanka is facing a debt cum foreign exchange crisis (which would have been happened even without the global economic devastation). With the naïve imbecility that characterises its outlook and actions on most issues, the regime expected the IMF to bail it out, just for the asking. The President obviously failed to comprehend that the manner in which the war is prosecuted and the displaced are treated can impact on Sri Lanka’s chances of a bailout.

The problem was foreseeable even though it was not foreseen. The Obama administration is far more sensitive to human rights concerns than its predecessor and the US owns the biggest voting block in the IMF. "The United States has decided to delay a US$1.9 billion International Monetary Fund loan to Sri Lanka to try to pressure Colombo to do more to help the civilians caught in the fighting between the government and Tamil Tiger rebels, US officials said… the Obama administration last week conveyed its view to other members of the IMF board, which has yet to formally consider the loan" (Reuters – 30.4.2009). Such are the limits of our sovereignty. We have the right to tell the Americans to keep their human rights concerns for Iraq and Afghanistan, just as the US has the right to block IMF loans and we have the right to make-do (or not) on whatever funds provided by our uncritical friends (China, Libya et al). We have the right to prevent the Swedish Foreign Minister from entering Sri Lanka on 29th April, together with his British and French counterparts, just as an incensed EU has the right to revoke our GSP privileges later this year and we have the right to close down some more garment factories. A poor country’s right to political sovereignty is not much different from a poor man’s right to starve; in Sri Lanka’s case the rulers will not starve; the people will.

Very few international actors will mourn the demise of the LTTE which is banned in the US, the UK, the EU and India. What is at issue is not Sri Lanka’s right to wage war against and defeat the Tigers; what is at issue is the manner in which Sri Lanka is treating her Tamil citizens – i.e. human rights and devolution. A less extreme and more humane attitudes towards civilian Tamils caught in the war zone or held in ‘welfare villages’, a sincere effort to solve the ethnic problem via devolution and greater verbal restraint could have saved Sri Lanka a heap of negative publicity and an outbreak of adverse reactions.

The Fate of V Pirapaharan

The government’s decision to cease using heavy weapons and aerial bombing on the sliver of land left in Tiger hands, obviously a response to Indian pressure, was both sensible and timely. According to UN estimates around 50,000 civilians are still holed up in that tiny space; consequently bombing and shelling will amount to a form of ‘collective punishment’ of these unfortunates. But having acted thus sensibly and humanely, albeit under pressure, the government seems to be backtracking already. Both the UN and the US State Department have talked about ‘continuing shelling among civilians’ after Monday’s announcement. If these reports are confirmed, Sri Lanka’s standing in the international arena will suffer further, and the Tamil Nadu crisis, defused with this timely pledge of restraint, will reignite, compelling Delhi into more drastic behaviour.

What if Mr. Pirapaharan is not hiding behind the displaced civilians in the war zone? What if he has already slipped out, into his old haunt of Mullaitivu jungle? True, there have been ‘Pirapaharan sightings’ in the ‘safe zone’, but the LTTE Chief would want to make the Lankan state believe, he is where he is not. According to media reports, Indian officials think that he has already slipped out of the war zone, a more probable scenario, given the nature of the man. After all, the thought of Mr. Pirapaharan skulking in a bunker, in the hope of being saved by the international community via a ceasefire does not ring true. He was never a man who trusted the world or depended on it. The idea of the LTTE as the outcome of a diabolical international plot is a Sinhala delusion. The Tigers are a homebrew and Mr. Pirapaharan has no international masters or mentors.

Determined to achieve a Grand Finale by capturing the Tiger Chief, the Lankan state is resorting to excesses which are already rebounding on it. Caught in a frenzy of hubris, the Rajapakses are antagonising powerful international actors whose support is a sine qua non to keep the economy afloat and prevent a resurgence of Tamil separatism (and of the LTTE, if Mr. Pirapaharan survives). Intent on pleasing its hardline Sinhala allies, the regime is further alienating Lankan Tamils, without whose willing consent a united and peaceful Sri Lanka is but a mirage. The ultimate irony will be if the Lankan Forces wrest the last sliver of land from Tiger control (as they will) at tremendous human and political costs, to discover that the Tiger Chief has flown many a day ago.

The UN, in an internal document distributed among diplomats, claims that 6,432 civilians were killed and 13,946 injured between 20th January and 20th April, 2009. This places the daily civilian death toll at 70, some killed by the Tigers and others by Lankan Forces. The ones still alive live in abysmal conditions, without basic facilities, and to say otherwise is a dastardly lie. In its recent report the UNHCR says that it has "received persistent reports of physical assaults on men and women fleeing into government controlled areas" and reminds "the government of its responsibilities towards the civilian population and to ensure the protection of its own citizens" (Briefing Paper – 28. 4.2009). Amongst the displaced, the government needs to make clear distinction between Tiger cadres and supporters, between hardcore Tigers and those who were conscripted and stayed unwillingly, particularly recent child conscripts. If a policy based on distinguishing between cadres and civilian supporters, hard core members and unwilling conscripts is not followed, many of the displaced will be deemed LTTE and treated accordingly. Irrespective of the fate of the LTTE and Vellupillai Pirapaharan, Sri Lanka will never know peace if most Tamils are treated as real or potential Tigers.

Elections, Indian and Sri Lankan

The government won the Western Provincial Election. The UPFA is at the zenith of its popularity; the war is manifestly won, the economic crisis is yet to be felt fully and the UNP is in more disarray than ever. Bur in the seven Sinhala majority provinces in which elections have been held so far, the UPFA’s vote increased by a paltry 192,354 compared to 2005 Presidential election. The UNP’s vote count between 2005 and 2008/9 decreased by a massive 1,433, 111. Still there was no significant shift of support from the UNP to the UPFA; though a large number of UNP parliamentarians, desirous of enjoying the trappings and the privileges of power, changed sides, ordinary party supporters did not. Many just abstained from voting, causing the huge drop in the number of votes cast between 2005 and 2008/9. These disillusioned supporters can be won over if the UNP manages to rid itself of the Ranil Wickremesinghe leadership and his discredited policies.

The government may celebrate in public; but its leaders cannot be unaware of the tenuous nature of its victory. Keeping Ranil Wickremesinghe as the leader of the UNP is a necessary condition for the UPFA to win the upcoming national elections, but it is not a sufficient condition. Therefore the regime would want to hold the Northern displaced in ‘welfare villages’ until national elections are over. People who are deprived of the right of movement will not be able to cast their votes as they wish, and it takes no foresight to predict that 90% or more of these unfortunates will ‘vote’ for the UPFA and Candidate Rajapakse. The government will also be more intolerant of dissent, using the label of terrorism to punish critics, as it did in the case of the editor of Sudar Oli, N Vidyadaran. A vocal critic of the government, he was accused of being a Tiger supporter by none other than Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse: "He is involved in the recent air attacks.… He is a terrorist. He is responsible for coordinating air attacks in Colombo. He is a terrorist. We have arrested him and it is the right thing to do. We will take legal action against him" (Hunting the Tigers – Dateline - ABC). Fortunately Mr. Vidyadaran was released by the courts because the police was unable to produce any evidence against him. What happens if the independence of the Judiciary is undermined, particularly after the present Chief Justice retires and is replaced by someone more amenable?

A Sinhala triumph in the Tamil North can have a serious impact on the electoral outcomes of both Tamil Nadu and India. The Congress led UPA and the DMK are obviously concerned about any Lankan development which can inflame passions in Tamil Nadu, especially with the BJP and the AIADMK waiting to step into the breach, nationally and regionally. But Sri Lanka is a dilemma not only to the UPA regime but also to the Indian state. Tamil Nadu is becoming increasingly radicalised thanks to the Sinhala Supremacist policies of the Rajapakses and, this, can eventually become a threat to Indian unity. Moreover China has become the largest donor to and the most uncritical supporter of Colombo, a state of affairs that is causing much misgiving in Delhi.