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Not so fractured UPA gets an almost decisive mandate

Congress party supporters dance in celebration outside the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, Saturday, May 16, 2009. The Congress party headed to a resounding victory Saturday in India’s month long national elections, defying expectations of a poor showing to secure a second term in power as the country battles an economic downturn. (AP)

The Statesman editorial dated May 16 If there is reason for satisfaction at the outcome of the Lok Sabha election, it must be born out of the fact that pre-poll alliances have done so well, winning nearly 75 per cent of the seats, and the fact that the two truly national parties have won more than half the seats. Disparate regional parties will no longer be in a position to call the shots; conversely, the leader of the UPA will no longer be able to blame the compulsions of coalition politics for shortcomings in governance. It will definitely be a matter of some comfort to the Congress and its Prime Minister that he would not have to suffer the demands and eccentricities of the Left or the Samajwadi Party. The Congress has won nearly 200 seats on its own. For the 70 or 75 it will need to stay in power, it has an embarrassment of riches to choose from. Leaving out the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Communists, these riches make up more than 150 MPs, nearly a third of whom are already part of the UPA. Of the others, the fourth front is a likely and this time around, more obsequious ally, Nitish Kumar’s JD-U is a possibility and some support may come from smaller parties in southern India. To his credit, Naveen Patnaik has expressed himself unequivocally against supporting the Congress or the BJP. But the Congress can reassure itself with the thought that no alternative formation is possible with the way the numbers have stacked up.

The BJP may draw comfort from its performance in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand. Really, though, it ought to be shattered by the way it has fared in Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh – states where it had substantial influence until the other day. The party clearly feels the absence of a leader of universal appeal, and one who has age on his side. It must find such a person and Narendra Modi who fails one of those two tests is not the answer. The greatest shock, though, has been administered to the Left. While occasionally well-meaning, India’s Leftists are seen largely as a disruptive presence. The past few years have also shown how hypocritical Leftists can be and fulminations of their apologists notwithstanding, they will need to return to their ideological roots to find solutions to their predicament. Several others whose ambitions were out of sync with political realities – Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati among them – have been brought rudely down to earth.

As the Prime Minister turns to ministry formation, he will have a largely free hand. On the basis of their contribution to the UPA, the Trinamul and the DMK may be entitled to two or three berths each, including a Cabinet berth, in the Council of Ministers; the NCP may have to content itself with a single berth; the National Conference’s Dr. Farooq Abdullah would consider himself a contender for a senior Cabinet position and perhaps a couple of berths would have to be left for the party that takes the UPA past the 272 mark. However, and this is important, Congress’ allies will not be in a position to demand portfolios of their choice. It is possible that the Congress will not wait until 2014 to anoint Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister; if, however, it wants him to return to power as Prime Minister, it will have to make good on all its promises. With the mandate it has got, it will have no excuses for not doing so.

The Statesman/ANN

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