As a result, these  days your ears are always bombarded  with negative and traumatic stories  so that  sometimes  you  feel  feverish from  hopelessness and  wretchedness  with the fear of facing the  anticipatory  harsher sufferings , as depicted  by economic Pundits and media.  Good news which will induce positive thinking is very rare nowadays. Dissemination of good news in the sphere of world economic system, based on facts, will induce positive attitudes leading to positive results. Positive and optimistic thinking can in turn play a deciding role in contributing in our own little   way to bring an end to current recession.

Fortunately,   there are some positive developments in the international arena which would eventually clear a way  to  end  the miseries faced by  world today and therefore this article is  an effort to  keep you informed of such positive developments  in the international and local economic arena,   so that  you  would realize that every thing  is not totally lost! .

Following are  a few of  such positive signs :

= This time, post crisis reaction from the authorities; central banks and Governments, was faster than  the authorities in  1930 s in USA and in 1990 s in Japan , They took correct actions ,unlike previously when  they did serious policy errors  such as  raising taxes, imposing tariffs and not curing the banking systems. Having understood these mistakes, this time, the authorities have unleashed powerful fiscal and monetary stimuli which were unheard hitherto such as Us $ 825 billion by USA, Us $ 568bn. by China, Us $ 99bn. by Japan, Us $ 33bn. by France, Us $ 8bn. by India and even Sri Lankan Govt releasing Rs 16 billion. These actions should begin to bear fruits by late spring and as year progresses,  further uplifting could occur.

= The stimuli are further reinforced by the fact that USA consumers have started  saving money. Personal savings in USA has now  jumped to 5 % ( By January 2009) from  0.5 % in 2008 January, having come down from the peak, of 11% recorded in 1983. !. What does it mean ?. It means, that they will start slowly ordering things hopefully for the coming Christmas and as a  result, by August or so global production houses such as China, SEA , India, Sri Lanka will get orders as by that time the inventory level could go down.

= Above position is reflected in the commodity market where the commodity prices such as Oil, Palm oil, Copper , Iron ore etc are going up. For instance prices of crude oil and that of palm oil have gone up by 60 % and 50 % respectively by now in comparison to December last year. In March , China imported a record amount of coal and iron ore and their oil imports of the same month was again highest for last 12 months. Some economists believe, commodity prices to be the first to rise out of all other asset categories, when economic growth resumes momentum.

= Outstanding credit card  debts in USA have been decreasing  for the past   two months, at least indicating that the US consumers  are rebuilding their own balance sheet.

=In addition to slow build up of  disposable income, their spending power has been boosted by lower energy cost which has brought rippling effects on lowering commodity prices thus rendering zero or close to zero inflation in countries such as USA and India and many more.

= Inventories  have been reducing to a low level so that production will have to be increased even to meet the current reduced level   of demand. Some Japanese car companies have announced  assemble line increases.

=Purchase managers Index (PMI), which measures such factors as new orders, production, supplier delivery times, backlogs, inventories, prices, employment, import orders and exports, is considered a key economic indicator by economists, rose by 3.8 % in USA in April for the consecutive fourth month and the same in the case of China recorded a dramatic rise to 55.4 in April , again for the fourth consecutive month. Typically, a score greater than 50 indicates an expansionary economy, while a score below 50 forecasts a sluggish economy for the next three to six months.

= In China, whose  government still has a tight control on the economy and  nearly 50 % of enterprises still owned by the State, decision taking process is very quick  unlike in a so called democratic country. Therefore, armed with a huge stimuli package of Us $ 568 billion and State   control over the economy, the Chinese  recovery will be pretty fast.

=In the local scenario, apparel industry sources reveal that garment exports grew by 5.8 % in the first two months and they expect orders to continue and Sri Lanka exports becoming competitive in view of weaker rupee, GSP Plus concession and low inflation resulting , inter alia, preserving a few thousand jobs .

= Tea prices too has started climbing up which was Rs 360/kg last week , up from Rs 320/Kg during previous week, though there are problems with the quantity. However, with good weather, tea sector expects  a good crop this year. This is good news for us as a few other tea growing countries have problems.

=Sri Lankan balance of Trade being narrowed down, as much as 66% in  January on year to year basis in view of huge drop of imports which is  40 .5 % or by  Us $ 699 million against drop of exports by 11.6 % or Us $ 491 million. This is  mainly due  to huge drop of crude oil prices.

=Direct and indirect benefits the country can gain in the conflict-free era would be enormous. It ranges from saving an enormous amount of money being spent on ammunition to capital inflow for massive reconstruction of the devastated areas and consequent investments which will cover a wider spectrum of activities beginning from tourism to light and heavy industries that would be resumed or/and set up in the previously Tiger-infested areas.

=Strong growth, specially in the paddy sector, which was blessed with an addition of about 50,000 hectares new or hitherto fellow land in 2008/09 Maha season in comparison 2007/2008 Maha, yielding an estimated crop of 2.33 million Mt paddy showing an increase of over 200,000 mt from 2007/08 Maha harvest. This situation will strengthen the rural, agriculture-based economy where over 2.4 million people are employed. Further boost on the Agriculture and Fisheries sectors could be expected once the products of Northern plain is added to the national economy in the post-war period.

= Tourism is destined to get a shot in the arm boosting the bleeding hospitality industry mainly from the local tourists as there is a generation who has not seen the color of Northern peninsula and another section of the society who has not crossed Vauniya border for 25 years. In the meantime , holiday destinations in the East, such as Arugam bay is already a hot topic. Even car rental companies are getting enquiries for rented vehicles to travel to North, specially from the Tamil diaspora.

=Sources close to Labour Ministry say there is a marked drop of applications from employers for retrenchment of employees.

= As the occurrence of devastating Tsunami could not be predicted by any Astrologers whose ‘ words of wisdom’ are taken as will of the God not only by poor and destitute by but mighty politicians also of this country, the current economic recession was not predicted by any economist but Prof. Nouriel Roubini from USA , who is nick named Dr. Doom. Therefore, it is questionable how far we can rely on the predictions of the economic Pandits. Yet ,if you want to listen to them, it is what President of ADB, Haruhiko Kuroda said on 11th May as he opened the ADB’s Board of Governors meeting in Bali, that next year Asia/ Pacific region will grow at an average rate of 6 % from current 3.4 % and " there are positive signs, therefore this should not be a time of despair". Prof. Roubini himself says that the US economy will grow to 0.5% next year from current minus 6 %. Prof. Roubini further says that six months back he was worried about an L shaped depression but due to very strong policy actions taken by US and other Governments, the risk of L shaped depression has reduced and the world is in the middle of a U shaped depression.

So end of the world is after all,  not that nigh , as  sensational-news-loving media preaching  us. Therefore let us face the future with a positive mind. The turnaround could be only a few months ahead.