Global politics is a game of probability and flexibility. Till the 9/11 destruction of the World Trade Center, India was a local player. With the emergence of global terrorism, world conflict is at our doorstep.

Our nation was born in the middle of the Cold War. The failure of Pakistan to develop as a democratic state lies in its involvement in the Cold War. It has now produced the Taliban. Almost all frontline states in the Cold War have had unstable or autocratic governments. As for China, we could have globalised the Tibetan problem by raising it in the United Nations but we actually prevented it. A debate on the issue tabled by El Salvador in the General Assembly was withdrawn at India’s request. Standing in Gyantse in front of the Palchoi monastery, the seat of the Panchen Lama, I thought that Panchen Lama helped China take over Tibet and we gave asylum to the Dalai Lama’s Tibetan government-in-exile when the world did not care. That was greatness but not politics. In foreign policy strategy, ideology has to be matched with the nation’s interest.

Indian Communists are rigid in world affairs because of a stagnant ideology. That ideology has never risen above national interests in Communist countries. Russia, China and Vietnam fought bitter wars between them. Those who are blinded by history are incapable of taking correct decisions. History should provide knowledge, not bias. Would it have been better if we had a friendly Pakistan on our western border? The answer is obviously "yes". That must make us wonder if there is anything we can do about it, not now but if such a situation arises? Things change in this world; one should anticipate changes.

Who are the Pakistani Taliban? They are mostly Pashtu-speaking people in the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Before partition, they were our friends. Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan, the Badshah Khan or Frontier Gandhi, was a staunch opponent of partition and supported the Congress. Wali Khan, his son reconstructed the history of that era after spending years in Pakistani jails. Pakistan decimated that generation of Khidai Khidmadgars. Later, they were worried about Daoud Khan’s intentions for a Pashtunistan or Pakhtoonistan.

After the end of the monarchy of King Zahir Shah in Afghanistan in 1973, the Marxist PDPA party gained strength. Zahir Shah’s prime minister, Daoud Khan, captured power. He was assassinated in 1978 and Nur Muhammed Taraki of the PDPA became President. Factional struggles split the party and attempted social reforms produced rebellion. Taraki was killed and Hafizullah Amin captured power. Rebellion spread and the CIA stepped in with training, arms supply and propaganda against the ‘godless’ Marxist regime with the aim of dragging the Russian army to their Vietnam. The CIA’s proxy war through Pakistan, helped by China, succeeded in bringing in the Russians.

The Soviet army entered in 1979, a slow trickle at first, progressively increasing in numbers and force. The mujahideens were helped by the ISI and the Special Services Group of Pakistan. The pump-priming by the American dollar inflated Pakistan’s economy and intensified the war. In 1989, the Soviet army retreated back to Russia. Najibullah’s Marxist government survived for a short time and then the mujahideens captured power.

The Afghans and Pathans are fiercely independent people devoted to Islam but generous and large-hearted. The British lost two wars against them and then realised it was better to befriend them and through a treaty made Afghanistan secure against the Russian advance. The Americans used these people against Russia and then forgot them in a land decimated by war. Flourishing orchards became the field for poppy cultivation.

During the war many Islamic mercenaries, Arabs and Central Asians joined the Afghans - the so-called Arab Afghans. One of them was a young Saudi named Osama bin Laden. The Islamists, who fought, believed that they were responsible for the fall of the Soviet Union. Osama even asserted that the credit for "the collapse of the Soviet Union ~ goes to God and the mujahideen in Afghanistan - the US had no mentionable role," but "collapse made the US more haughty and arrogant." This led to the emergence of a large mercenary force.

Osama and al-Zawahiri are the creations of the Arab-Israeli conflict. They were against the Egypt-Israel pact. Pakistan has used terrorists over the years to receive aid without developing its own economy. The society has been corrupted by bribe since birth.

India has no role in this conflict but we are getting involved. We are being advised to be kind to Pakistan so that they can redeploy their army in the east. But that is a hoax; terrorism is profitable to the leadership of Pakistan. Our agenda is to contain infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir. But the Taliban have free access to Pakistan territory and have virtual control over Baluchistan, Peshawar and NWFP. They are progressing in the north and came to Buner and close to Pakistan’s nuclear installations. Following Hilary Clinton’s address to Congress, Pakistan’s rulers ‘drove’ the Taliban away from Buner in return for billions of dollars.

The American push in Afghanistan has pushed the mixed Taliban to the east and Pakistan is using them to earn money and arms. But that game will not last long or else the structure of terrorism may change with access to nuclear arsenal regardless of whether Osama is alive or dead.

The Nato army has so far succeeded in keeping areas around big cities under control, but for how long? It is the same old story. The Karzai government has taken lessons from the past and is slow in pushing reforms. America could have helped development when the Soviets left.

There is already a de facto Pashtunistan in Baluchistan and North West Frontier Province. The refugees from the Swat valley are the same people as the fighters. Would paying Pakistan help the development of Pashtu-speaking people? If that had happened the entire area today would not have been one united terrorist territory.

The social situation on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border is similar and hence the unity. To the Americans, the people of Asia have been a faceless multitude. They are not conscious of cultural barriers within and instead of taking advantage of that like the British did as colonial rulers, they break down the barriers by force and unite terrorists.

America vaguely considered the possibility of a Pashtu state at one time but was afraid of the Russians approaching the Indian Ocean. That fear has gone and now there is the fear of China. But they have other options such as access from Central Asia. They can find another Ahmad Shah Massoud to prevent that. Very few people know that this Tajik warlord, supporter of western style democracy and used for blocking the Russians, was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002 but was assassinated before that.

In this jigsaw, India’s only option is to be a close observer. The British sent ‘advisers’ to what is now Taliban land and Central Asia. Let us hope we also have watchers around and a sensible government in Delhi.