With the IMF loan delayed without a reasonable explanation, the government will be up against another hurdle in the coming months – the extension of the GSP+ facility which enables duty free access to the European Union for a whole range of Sri Lankan products including garments. The LTTE lobby overseas, which was left intact when their military organization in Sri Lanka was completely destroyed, had been working overtime, trying to get western governments and various international bodies such as the UNHRC and the EU to act as their instruments of revenge. The pressure brought upon the European Commission was so immense that about a month after Prabhakaran’s death, on June 16, the External Affairs Commissioner of the EC, Benita Ferrero-Waldner felt compelled to write an open letter on this matter.

The letter begins thus – "I have received a number of letters and petitions in particular from the Tamil community in Europe about the latest developments in Sri Lanka, in particular in relation to the situation in the north and east of the country. Many of these messages accuse the European Union of not doing, or not having done enough to avert the humanitarian crisis in Sri Lanka and avoid human suffering."

As an answer to these critics, Ferrero-Waldner summarises some past conclusions of the European Council, which said among other things, that the EU is appalled by the loss of innocent lives as a result of the armed conflict, and the high number of casualties including children following intense fighting in northern Sri Lanka and that the Sri Lankan government should proceed towards a comprehensive political process and so on. Of course Ferrero-Waldner also summarises an EU council conclusion which describes the LTTE as a terrorist organization and condemns the use of civilians as human shields. She has also quoted EU Council conclusions where the EU has acknowledged the steps already taken by the government of Sri Lanka to address the humanitarian situation of those it is holding in camps for internally displaced people. It should be remembered that Ferrero-Waldner was quoting Council conclusions either immediately before or immediately after Prabhakaran was killed and the war ended. Her letter to the Tamil community ends as follows.

An instrument of revenge?

"Winning the peace would be the real victory. I am personally committed to play our part to contribute to re-establish peace and reconciliation. For this to take place, the commission is convinced that it is essential to address in a satisfactory way, the humanitarian and human rights crises. It is paramount that accountability and justice for victims of the conflict be ensured." Anyone familiar with the sentiments of the pro-LTTE Tamil diaspora will know that what all the letter writers and petitioners who had been berating the EU, wanted to hear was this last sentence – that the EU will play a role in avenging the deaths of Prabhakaran and the others. Ferrero-Waldner has obligingly included that in her open letter to the Tamil diaspora. Everyone knows that the single minded aim of the LTTE diaspora at this particular moment is to use western governments and international bodies as instruments of their vengeance.

The situation is compounded by the fact that it is not just the LTTE diaspora that has been lobbying Ferrero-Waldner to pull their chestnuts out of the fire. The opposition leader of Sri Lanka has been lobbying her for the same purpose. In contrast to the stubborn and unyielding Rajapaksa, Wickremesinghe would appear to Ferrerro-Waldner as a pliant and obliging individual. It was Wickremesinghe who wrote to this official of the European Commission saying that a constitutional amendment was necessary for Sri Lanka to fully comply with the provisions of the International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights in order to qualify for GSP+, and that his party would be willing to give the government of Sri Lanka the two thirds majority to pass the necessary constitutional amendments. Such a letter should have been addressed to the president, and not to an international civil servant in Europe. The purpose behind all this servility was obviously to recruit the help of Ferrero-Waldner in destabilizing the Rajapaksa regime.

The question is, will she oblige the LTTE diaspora and the Opposition leader? The European Commission team that is investigating Sri Lanka’s eligibility for an extension of the GSP+ facility, is supposed to complete their work by October and the council of the European Union will announce their decision by December this year. This will be about the time that the elections will be announced. So what is in store for Sri Lanka? Ferrero-Waldner has already said in conversations with Sri Lankan government delegates that GSP+ was a useful ‘tool’ (in correcting what they think needed correcting in Sri Lanka). If this is the case, the opposition alliance that is now being forged may include in their basic strategy, Ferrero-Waldner and her ‘tool’ as well.

There’s little point in crying over spilt milk, but the decision of the then Sri Lankan government to even apply for GSP+ concessions was a bad mistake. Duty free concessions for industrial products are usually sought when the industry is in an incipient state. Had the government applied for something akin to GSP+ in the late 1970s, that would have made good sense. But to apply for something like that in 2004, when the industry was mature, was insanity. Of course both the government and the garments industry may have been motivated to apply for GSP+ at that time, by the fear of fallout from the abolition of the garment quotas to the USA from 2005 onwards. Be that as it may, the decision has proved to be disastrous in the long term. Before the receipt of GSP+ concessions, the garment industry was thriving, and competing successfully with a whole lot of other Asian nations – some of which had lower cost of production than Sri Lanka. Garment exports to the EU were also increasing year by year.

The GSP+ concession saw a significant short term increase in garment exports to the EU, but the industry has become dependent now on the duty free concession, and some say the industry may not survive without it. This makes the decision to apply for GSP+ akin to the decision to nationalize the plantations – a decision that would ruin an otherwise robust industry. The business community is the unsung hero of our country. They kept things going in the past, when the country was ruled by some very unbalanced rulers, and production in all spheres increased even though the rulers were playing ducks and drakes. This business community should realize that if some industry cannot survive without duty free entry into markets, then its time to get out of that industry because duty free concessions are entirely at the discretion of the countries granting such concessions and sudden withdrawal for whatever reason, will mean the end of an industry. In any event, GSP+ concessions are certainly not going to continue for ever and it all depends on how long the EU wants to continue with it. The business community can’t really expect any government to bend over backwards to obtain a concession which is only going to last a few years at best. Even though Ranil Wickremesinghe wrote to the EU External Affairs Commissioner saying he was willing to change the constitution of Sri Lanka, in order to qualify for a mere three year extension of this facility, one cannot expect any self respecting government to do so. A government may consider changing the constitution for an extension of a useful facility for at least a couple of decades, but never for something as short as 36 months!

Besides, if it is the case that an industry cannot survive without a concession, applying for extensions will only postpone the final folding up of the industry, not avert it. In April 2002, there was an American studies seminar organized by the University of Colombo and the American Embassy at which I too was a speaker. In my speech, I argued that western countries should cut off all aid to developing countries in order to get them out of a dependent mentality. Dayan Jayatilleke, who was also a speaker at that seminar criticized me saying I was so far to the right in my thinking that he found it difficult to place me on the political spectrum. But now, seeing the leader of the opposition going crawling to an EU official to get a three year extension of a 10% duty waiver, I feel vindicated. Even if living standards go down, that is but a small price to pay for freedom from slavery. There is something called sustainable economic development. And depending on a duty waiver as a lifeline is certainly not sustainable in the medium to long term.

Aanamaalu Imtiaz and the new order

The president came late for Wednesday’s cabinet meeting and did something very unusual. He asked everyone to sit down again and said he has a special announcement to make. He informed all those present that no politician should telephone senior army officers when they apprehend trucks illegally transporting cattle, illicitly felled timber or underworld figures. (By implication of course, these are the spare time activities of his cabinet members!) He said that unlike the police, the army was not accustomed to responding to requests made by politicians and he said that he had been deeply embarrassed at the security council meeting held earlier. (Where the army had obviously appraised him of the kind of requests they had been receiving from government politicians.) He said that the war was now over and that he was going to finish off the underworld next. Two days later, an underworld kingpin in Colombo, Aanamaalu Imtiaz, was found dead on the streets having been abducted from his hideout in Dummalasuriya two days earlier.

Finishing off the underworld is indeed a useful thing because with hundreds of contract killers on the loose, the LTTE diaspora, won’t need a Tamil guerilla force on Sri Lankan soil. They can easily sub-contract the war to the multi-ethnic, multi-religious underworld of Colombo. Even the JVP started their second insurrection in the late 1980s with hired hands from the underworld - the ‘Piliyandala mafia’ as I called it in my articles on the JVP insurrection in 1990 in this newspaper. These were the people who did the actual butchering, the slitting of throats and chopping off of heads for the revolution until the JVP cadres proper, got the hang of it. This was such a salient feature of the JVP’s second insurrection that I theorized that the JVP had combined Marxism with Bakuninism. The Russian revolutionary, Mikhail Bakunin (A Russian contemporary of Karl Marx) was a great believer in the revolutionary potential of the criminal class because criminals were not afraid of confronting the powers that be and had the expertise and know how to do it. They did not have to be taught the basics like robbing banks or shooting opponents; whereas the working class had neither the required attitude of mind nor the expertise. Deprived of a local army, but with their overseas organization and income sources intact, the LTTE could easily turn Bakuninist, hiring local gangsters to do the dirty work for them. So knocking out the local underworld makes perfect sense if the post war scenario is to remain that.

No perahera for Basil

Last week when the president and the service commanders were felicitated by Ananda College, present on the occasion were, the distinguished old Anandians, Sarath Fonseka, Vasantha Karannagoda, Sarath Weerasekera, Rajitha Senaratne and others. Minister Senaratne had commented that Basil Rajapaksa who was also an Anandian was not being felicitated even though he too played an absolutely vital role in orchestrating the war to a successful conclusion. The absence of Basil Rajapaksa may have been all the more glaring at a felicitation for old Anandians, but Senaratne’s observation holds true of all other felicitations as well. Basil’s role in being the interface between the Indian government and Sri Lanka, was vital in the war effort. It was he and not the foreign ministry that handled the relationship with India. His performance on this front would have made Lakshman Kadirgarmar proud. Yet, he was never felicitated at any of the numerous ceremonies held since May this year. All the other elephants who heaved logs, had their moment in the perahera as well, whereas Basil R has so far heaved logs in the background but never appeared in the perahera.

In the present set up, Basil Rajapaksa enjoys a great deal of real power but less prominence. He will however have his day, because his horoscope is beginning to take effect on the UNP in the same manner that Chandrika Kumaratunga’s horoscope took its toll on the UNP in the early 1990s. The decks are being cleared by fate for Basil to succeed his elder sibling as president one day. On Wednesday last week, UNP MPs Lakshman Seneviratne, Gamini Jayawickrema Perera and Ravi Karunanayake together with S.B. Dissanayake, now a Provincial Councillor, met in the lobby of parliament to work out a compromise settlement before the political affairs committee and working committee meetings to be held on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Ravi Karunanayake had insisted that a UNP led alliance should be formed. But the others had said there was no hurry. As I mentioned in previous columns, their main objection is to forming an alliance with Mangala Samaraweera, who they say is trying to carve out a disproportionate role for himself as an alliance partner. They however, have no objection to Samaraweera joining the UNP as an individual.

Ravi K is now playing the role of an intermediary between the Wickremesinghe camp and the reformists. There is a rumour going around to the effect that Ravi K is going to be the general secretary of the UNP led grand opposition alliance and that his enthusiasm for the alliance stems from this. Be that as it may, three members of the UNP reformist group, Lakshman Senviratne, Ranjith Madduma Bandara and Ravi Samaraweera will be busy with the Uva election campaign next week and a request has been made to Karu Jayasuriya that the political affairs committee meeting scheduled for Tuesday be postponed. But that’s not likely to happen. So the possibility is that in the absence of three of the key reformists, the proposal for an alliance will be pushed through at the political affairs committee on Tuesday and ratified at the working committee meeting on Wednesday. The formation of the alliance is for the purpose of fielding a common candidate at the presidential elections so that Ranil Wickremesinghe will be able to avoid getting defeated once more and save himself for 2017. This is when things dovetail with Basil Rajapakse’s horoscope. With the unfolding drama within the UNP, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Basil also is destined to rule this country and that he will have a much easier time getting to the top slot than his elder sibling had in 2005.

Land and police powers in India

Last week the JHU informed me that it was not they but the JVP who opposed the giving of land and police powers to the provinces. The JHU assured me that they were fully aware of the fact that land powers had been exercised by the provincial councils since 1991. What the JVP opposed was the granting of police powers to the provinces and this on security grounds. Given the fact that this question of the distribution of land between the Sinhalese, Muslims and the Tamils, was one of the key bones of contention in the past, it’s remarkable how it has died a natural death. The land coming under all major irrigation and land development projects comes under the central government and the PC law is very clear that the distribution of such lands will be according to the national proportion of each ethnic group. State owned lands outside these major schemes belong to the PC and they can recommend to the president that these lands be alienated to individuals of their choice. It is because the president or the cabinet as the case may be, has the final say in giving out lands coming under the central government as well as the provincial governments, that the ceding of land powers, went unnoticed for so long.

The provincial councils system in Sri Lanka is modeled on the system of devolution in India. This whole question of land and police powers featured prominently in the clash in October last year between Congress Party boss Sonia Gandhi and the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawathi. The latter cancelled an allotment of land for a railway coach factory in Rae Barelli in Uttar Pradesh and tried to prevent Sonia Gandhi from holding a public meeting to protest against this cancellation of the allotment of land. Sonia however defied Mayawathi’s order and went to Rae Barelli nevertheless, saying she was even prepared to go to jail. Even though Sonia could not be stopped from coming to her own constituency, she was not allowed direct entry on Chief Minister Maywati’s orders and her route was changed. This was on the basis that the route of a VVIP of the central government cannot be decided by local authorities, but by the central government security detail itself.

This incident occurred in October 2008. Sonia Gandhi was the president of the ruling party of India, and Rae Barelli was her own constituency. Yet a chief minister could cancel a land allotment made by the central government and even issue a proclamation banning a meeting Sonia was going to have in her electorate. They could also divert her motorcade in a direction of their choosing in a situation where she had a threat on her life from the very organization that assassinated her husband. The stuff of nightmares!

The question is, can such a thing happen in Sri Lanka if land and police powers are given to the provincial councils? Well, technically, it can. According to the PC law, if the Sri Lankan central government needs state owned land in a province for any task of the central government, they can take it but have to make ‘inquiries’ (vimaseema) from the provincial council and the PC can object to it.. Would a provincial government be able to ban a political meeting by a parliamentarian or central government minister in the province? Yes they could. With the police reporting to the chief minister, such a meeting could be considered a risk to the public peace and it could be banned. However, it is unlikely that a provincial government would try to divert the motorcade of a visiting central government VVIP receiving the protection of central government security agencies because all matters pertaining to national security rest with the central government and the lives of central government figures falls under national security.

The mere fact that such an incident was possible in India will cause Sri Lankan leaders think twice about police and land powers and who can blame them?