Bangkok: The London-based Economist of August 13 reported under the headline "An astonishing rebound" that Asia’s emerging economies are leading the way out of recession and added, quite rightly, that they need to make the recovery last.

The first signs of this Asian recovery appeared a couple of months ago, though there were economists and pundits in the West who generally shot down the suggestion that Asia could do so without the help of the West.

Some of them were particularly critical of the idea that China would be a principal factor in the Asian recovery, arguing that it would be dangerous to reply on statistics trotted out by China because these tend to be doctored figures.

However skeptical such persons might be about the economic data emanating from China and however much they feel that Asia’s export-led economies cannot pave the way until the rich West recovers from the global recession

From the vantage point of Bangkok, lying between Asian giants China and India, one begins to wonder whether the Western mantra sold to the South that export-led growth is the solution to their economic salvation is in fact the panacea.

Right now judging from what is happening in countries round us in this part of Asia, recovery has not been based on exporting to the rich West but on strategies adopted domestically.

As the world’s leading economies struggle to recover from a recession caused largely by financial mismanagement, greed and profligacy particularly in the United States but not excluding such countries as the United Kingdom, there is some hope in this part of Asia that it may have the answers to recovery.

Fortunately the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis that began right here in Thailand taught some important lessons. The salutary correctives that followed included tighter control and supervision of financial institutions and lending.

Some of the member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) of which Thailand is a founding father, have proved themselves to be part of the engine of economic growth that saw Asia begin to lead the world in GDP achievement.

As people here look round the world at the struggling economies of the West today, some find solace in the performance of the markets in Asia which have been bouyant. Equity markets in India, China and Vietnam have risen sharply in recent months, a sign perhaps of the beginning of economic recovery in this part of the world.

But if skeptics see this as a reading of the tea leaves, there are more tangible signs to be found in the performance of the real economy. Take for instance the rise in industrial production in Asian countries such as Thailand, South Korea and Singapore.

It is a sign that demand rather than petering out is slowly rising. In fact the belief here is that Asian economies have gone through their worst since the shocks of the financial crisis of the late 1990s, the troubles have now bottomed out and could not get any worse.

The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast that GDP for emerging East Asia will be 3% in 2009. True this is less than half the 6.1% recorded last year but it is still much better than economic growth in other parts of the world.

The hopes however are pinned on next year when institutions such as the ADB expect growth in the region to rise to the same levels as last year or thereabouts. It might still be argued that this is two percentage points or more lower than what was achieved in the first years of this decade.

The problem right now for Asia-and developing countries elsewhere- that have geared themselves to serve external demand as suggested by international institutions and strong proponents of economic globalization, is that the markets they were dependent on have shrunk badly.

The global financial crisis that originated in the West has brought down many economies not necessarily those that were initially responsible for creating this meltdown.

Western governments including the US and UK were late if not reluctant to act with the expedition that was required to contain the crisis and take measures against those who were responsible for it.

Rather, governmental action seemed to benefit the corrupt and greedy.

Fortunately the steps taken by Asian governments to reform their financial systems after their own crisis helped insulate them from the worst effects of the global problem.

The result of western action/inaction has been felt mainly by the peoples of those countries. Huge job losses caused by cut backs in manufacture and the service sector and a sharp drop in consumer spending, all part of a vicious circle, have had their effect on Asian and other economies dependent markets in the West.

The economy of the US where the present rot started in expected to shrink by 3% this year. Other major economies such as Japan and Europe are expected to contract even more-around 5.8% and 4.3% respectively.

Therein lies the rub. Stimulus packages by Asian governments might help overcome problems temporarily. But they do not provide a sustained solution to the problem of negative or sluggish growth.

China’s government spending of over 7% of GDP in 2009 and slightly more in the next year would certainly benefit other Asian economies for increased growth at home will spur Chinese domestic demand for Asian goods.

As the ADB points out China is the major buyer of Korean goods while Japan serves as a big trading partner too. It seems that China buys about one-fourth of Korea’s and one-sixth of Japan’s exports.

China is also a major trading partner of many of the leading members of Asean. According to trade information around 12% of the total exports of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam go to China.

So China is the fulcrum on which Asian economic recovery would immediately depend. Chinese government stimulus will boost the country’s economy and lead to increased consumer demands.

That is good for Asian economies that are plugged into the Chinese market. This will boost Asian economic growth and help recovery.

But the question that needs to be answered is whether an expanding Chinese economy alone is sufficient to spur Asian economic growth at least to the levels attained between the years 2003-2007.

While the centrality of China right now in this recovery process cannot be denied would this be sustainable and would Asian economies not have to look to the West to take the slack.

Just now there are few signs that the western economies will recover soon. Even now job losses are being recorded and consumer spending has not reached levels of a few years back.

But this over-dependence on the western markets must surely change. New answers must be sought and found for strategies relentlessly promoted by the West have been found wanting.

Each time western financial and economic systems catch cold the rest of the world cannot afford to end up with influenza. This economic swine-flu is debilitating.

The developing world needs to press more vigorously for reform and restructuring. That is where organizations such as the Non-aligned Movement could work closely with the G-77 to form a common front against iniquitous trade laws to make them more equitable.

In the meantime some kind of cushion is necessary to absorb the after shocks each time western economies suffer from internal weaknesses and shortsighted policies.