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Outfoxing Opposition
The President seems to have pulled the rug from under the feet of the opposition yet again. When there was speculation about an early presidential election the opposition which lacks a leader who can stand against the President, saw an opportunity when they smelt a possible rift between General Sarath Fonseka and the Government. If General Sarath Fonseka could be persuaded to be their candidate they would be killing several birds with one stone. So they announced his candidature even before the General had resigned. The SLFP meanwhile had made it known that their decision regarding the election would be announced at the party convention. The General resigns before this announcement but doesn’t divulge his intentions. The opposition alliance lays down conditions for the General if he is to be accepted as the common candidate and these terms are designed to show that the General is being put forward only to serve a purpose. Obviously this was to hide the fact that their own leader cannot face an election because he will lose. But little do they realize that by doing this, they have accepted defeat and also caused further damage to the already battered image of their leader.

The opposition, satisfied with their plans awaits the announcement about the election at the SLFP convention. And what does the President do? Of course he pulls the rug from under the feet of the opposition. He doesn’t say anything definite about the election!

Being the astute politician that he is, the President seems to have killed two birds with one stone. The opposition has received a blow yet again, but the General has been allowed time to contemplate and plan his future course of action. Unlike the opposition which jumped the gun, the General did not show his hand and had kept his options open. Now he can do a Situation Analysis and come to a decision not clouded by personal differences and which also takes into consideration the real intentions of the opposition. He must realize how much the country loves him and the esteem he has gained which he must not allowed to be destroyed by opportunist politicians.

The President must also realize that there is really no need for an early presidential election. There is uncertainty about the period of time he might lose from his term. Whatever the Constitution says on this matter, there is no need to take that chance. At present, the President has electoral support of about 70% to 80%. The Government received about 65% to 70% of votes at the provincial council elections. The President could get more in a presidential election given his popularity. Taking into consideration the natural trend of the diminishing support base of all politicians in power the present President’s public approval rate cannot be expected to decline from a possible 75% to below 51% by November 2011. One cannot think of an opponent of stature among the present lot who could get 51% of votes in a contest against the President even in 2011. Therefore the President has done the right thing by the country and also by his army commander who served him so magnificently.

N. A. de S.Amaratunga

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