President Mahinda Rajapaksa has thrown down the gauntlet but the Opposition is still all at sea, unable to decide who should pick it up. It is believed that former army chief Gen. (retd) Sarath Fonseka will be the Opposition's common candidate. But, no official announcement of his candidature has so far been made. Nor is it known whether he will represent the Opposition as a whole or only the UNF.

Yesterday, the JVP denied that it had agreed to a caretaker government with UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister in the event of Fonseka's victory at the next presidential election. It insists that a caretaker government will have no Prime Minister as such. One is intrigued. How could there exist any form of government without a head?

The JVP is in an unenviable position. It wants to defeat President Rajapaksa without being party to a move to bring Wickremesinghe back to power.

In 2005, it may be recalled, the JVP campaigned vigorously to bring about Wickremesinghe's downfall with the help of Rajapaksa and succeeded in its endeavour. Now, it cannot afford to be seen as helping their one-time bête noire to capture power.

However, one of the conditions that the UNP has put forth for endorsing Fonseka's candidature is that Wickremesinghe should be appointed PM of a caretaker government. The UNP seems to be trying to attract the minority vote with the help of Wickremesinghe while using Fonseka as a tool to cause a split in the nationalist vote.

The JVP's dilemma is that its constituency is averse to the UNP, especially Wickremesinghe, and therefore it may not want to vote for a common candidate, who undertakes to form a UNP-led caretaker government. The JVP wants Fonseka to grab the presidency, oust Rajapaksa, appoint independent commissions etc. and disappear from the political scene! The UNP wants to use the JVP and Fonseka to capture power and part company thereafter so that there would be a government under Wickremesinghe's leadership.

Fonseka wants to use both the JVP and the UNP to achieve his goal––to bring down President Rajapaksa. But, what is he planning to do thereafter? That is the million dollar question! Will he condescend to do as he is told and let go of the much coveted executive powers? It is not for licking fingers that one gathers a honeycomb, as they say in this country. Who is capable of reading his elusive mind?

What guarantee is there that Fonseka will appoint Wickremesinghe Prime Minister? In 2005, the SLFP led by President Kumaratunga resolved that Rajapaksa appoint Anura Bandaranaike Prime Minister after securing the presidency but he defied the party decision and appointed Ratnasiri Wickremenayake PM!

The JVP and the UNP seem to think that they will be able to goad Fonseka into submission in the event of his victory because, without power in Parliament, he will be dependent on them for his political survival. The JVP trapped President Chandrika Kumaratunga in a parivasa aanduwa or 'probationary government' in 2001 and boasted that it was in a position to remote-control the Kumaratunga administration! It seems to be toying with the idea of employing the same tactics to tame Fonseka, if he wins the presidency and reneges on his promises.

The UNP may be thinking that it would be able to control Fonseka the way it humbled President Kumaratunga from 2001 to 2004 with Wickremesinghe as PM. During that period, the UNP-led UNF government tamed President Kumaratunga to the point of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe being able to act like a de facto president. He even signed a CFA with the LTTE behind her back and made other vital decisions much to the detriment of national security, without her concurrence, though she was technically the head of government and commander-in-chief.

But, will those methods work with Fonseka, who has dared to ruffle an incumbent Executive President's feathers, if he becomes President? In such an eventuality, he will be the Commander-in-Chief––not just the army chief or the Chief of Defence Staff; he may look for an alternative to hostile political forces blocking his path. Remember his first message after retirement was to the army. Old habits, they say, die hard!

Sri Lanka's democracy needs to be strengthened, no doubt. And the Opposition has a right to make or break governments democratically. But, such projects must be undertaken with utmost care without leaving room for disaster. Else, there is a possibility of its remedy ending up worse than the malady.