As a shower is to drought affected frogs, so are elections to disgruntled politicians; they croak and jump. The past few weeks have seen frog like jumps in politics beginning from Wijedasa Rajapakshe's defection to the UNP. Then came S. B. Dissanayake's pole-vault from the UNP to the SLFP, followed by crossovers of Johnston Fernando and Indika Bandaranayke to the government from the UNP. On Thursday, we saw Arjuna Ranatunge's defection to the Opposition in all but name. Some more political jumps are expected in the run-up to the Jan. 26 polls.

Crossovers may go places in the short term but they certainly cannot leapfrog to higher positions in their new ‘abodes’, as could be seen from the fate of prominent defectors of yore. They only ruin their political future.

Anura Bandaranaike, a one-time heir apparent to the SLFP leadership, committed political hara-kiri by defecting to the UNP in 1993. Had Mahinda Rajapaksa, Anura's bosom pal at that time, followed suit, he, too, would have ended in the same predicament. Mahinda was wise enough to stomach indignities at the hands of his bête noire Chandrika Kumaratunga, who finally took over the reins of the SLFP, and to play the so-called waiting game in politics until his turn came.

By the time Anura returned to the SLFP's fold, all top slots of the party were occupied and he had to opt for 'footboard travel'. He again blundered in 2005, even after being nominated the SLFP's prime ministerial candidate, by siding with Rajapaksa's rivals, both in the SLFP and UNP, in a bid to ruin his prospects of becoming President. Then, he joined forces with the UNP at a budget vote sometime before his demise.

Chandrika, too, left the SLFP but she did not join the UNP. She changed parties like footwear, so to speak, but remained within the then Opposition's orbit in spite of ideological differences. Thus, when she returned to the SLFP at last, she was still acceptable to the party's rank and file, though there was resistance from some party seniors who felt their interests threatened.

Similarly, a group of UNP heavyweights including Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake, though expelled from the party following an abortive attempt to impeach President Ranasinghe Premadasa, did not join the SLFP. They formed a separate party, the DUNF, and remained independent. Gamini was, therefore, able to return to the UNP's fold after the assassination of Lalith and President Premadasa and to consolidate his power again in the party at the expense of his rivals like Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Had Gamini been alive, though he may not have won the presidential election in 1994, Chandrika would have had her work cut out as President, because he was capable of reviving the Grand Old Party and posing a serious threat to her government. Perhaps, he would have brought down her government which had only a razor thin majority in Parliament.

UNP Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya made the mistake of accepting a Cabinet post in the UPFA government after leaving the UNP in a huff. Although he returned to the UNP, his credibility suffered irreparably. Other UNP rebels who joined the government together with him have had the wisdom to remain where they are without going back as 'traitors' and falling between two stools in the process.

In the SLFP, SB has the same problem as Karu in the UNP; they have become aliens of sorts in their own parties because of their political somersaults. In the SLFP and the UNP, water swiftly closes in after defections because they are full of ambitious ‘predatory’ competitors eager to see one another's back and grab their positions.