One of the more significant developments that has resulted from the presidential election is the split within the hitherto monolithic Tamil National Alliance. The TNA is composed of four different parties, the Federal Party, the EPRLF, TELO, and the ACTC, and several independent MPs who were all kept together by the diktat of the LTTE. Even after the LTTE was wiped out, the TNA continued to remain one entity and at the last Jaffna municipal elections and the Vavuniya urban council elections, they were able to give better account of themselves than many expected. TNA was able to show that they had an independent existence even without the LTTE. It appeared as if the TNA had consolidated into a new post-LTTE Tamil political formation that would continue to play a significant if not dominant part in the politics of the north and at least in parts of the east. However with the announcement of the presidential election, the TNA seems to have dissolved into bickering factions. Nomination day for the presidential elections has come and gone, but feuding within the TNA has not ceased. In fact it would be a miracle if the TNA emerges intact from this presidential election.

One of the reasons why the TNA appeared to be a monolithic political entity at least to outsiders, was because of the pre-eminent position enjoyed by its leader R Sambandan. This time around however, the majority of the parliamentarians in the TNA have not fallen in line with their leader on the issue of what the TNA should do at the presidential elections. Sambandan wants the TNA to support the opposition candidate Sarath Fonseka and three other MPs, - all from the Jaffna district - Suresh Premachandran, Mavai Senathirajah, and Sivashakthi Ananthan support his view. But the four TELO parliamentarians, N.Srikantha and M.K.Sivajilingam from Jaffna, and Selvam Adaikalanathan and Vino Noharathalingam of the Vanni district, hold that neither of the two main contenders should be supported and that the Tamils should field their own candidate. Sivajilingam has already filed his nominations as a candidate. These are the two main core factions within the TNA. The TNA has 22 parliamentarians, and the positions taken by the other MPs are as follows.

Vanni MP Sivanathan Kisshor has been making pro-government noises and it is widely believed that he will openly support the government at the presidential election. The only Muslim parliamentarian in the TNA, a national list MP, R.M.Imam is completely non-committal and evasive, and nobody knows where he stands. Batticaloa district MPs S.Jeganandamoorthy and T.Kanagasabai are overseas. Other than these parliamentarians, there is a solid block in the TNA which holds that their party should not support either of the two main contenders. Into this group falls Jaffna district MPs Selvarajah Kajendran, Mrs P.Sithamparanathan, Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam, S.Solomon Cyril and Batticaloa district parliamentarian, P.Ariyanethiran, national list MP Chandrakanthan Chandranehru, Trincomalee district MP K Thureiratnasingham, and Amparai district parliamentarian T.T.William.Vanni district MP Sathasivam Kanagaratnam is in detention, having been found among the IDPs in Puthumathalan. He is due to be released shortly, and he too supports the latter faction.

TNA MPs unconvinced

Thus, out of the 20 TNA parliamentarians in the country, one supports Rajapaksa, four support Fonseka, and a block of 13 does not want to support either of the two main candidates. Sambandan’s argument against the four TELO MPs is that by fielding a Tamil candidate, the TNA would block Tamil votes which would otherwise go to Fonseka. He contends that by absorbing Tamil votes in this manner, the TNA would be indirectly helping Mahinda Rajapaksa to win. Sambandan has been going around telling everyone that M.K.Sivajilingam has been put forward as a Tamil candidate because the TELO theoretician N.Srikantha wants to curry favour with Rajapaksa and become a president’s counsel!

Despite the invective, the majority of TNA parliamentarians remain unconvinced as to what benefit there will be for them from either Rajapaksa or Fonseka. Even though Sambandan has been arguing strenuously for Fonseka, he has not been able to show what Fonseka can deliver to the TNA. Sambandan has taken a ‘Mahinda defeated the Tamil liberation struggle, so let’s defeat Mahinda’ kind of stand. While this may undoubtedly have some resonance among certain sections of the Tamil public, what most TNA parliamentarians fear is the fallout if their support for Fonseka does not produce concrete results for the Tamil cause. While Fonseka has promised a political package that ‘goes beyond’ the 13th amendment, this does not seem convincing to most TNA MPs. The question they pose is, `what exactly is meant by ‘beyond the 13th amendment’? The 13th amendment is itself so hackneyed that the mere mention of it tends to put people to sleep.

The majority in the TNA want something more concrete such as a statement on the merger of the north and east, on land and police powers, etcetera. Some even blame Sambandan for extending his support to the opposition candidate without negotiating for any significant concessions. The fact that one of Fonseka’s main backers, the JVP has consistently opposed the devolution of power, the granting of land and police powers to the provincial councils and the north-east merger, has not helped either. The TNA now does not have the LTTE backed preeminence that it had earlier, and in the present competitive environment, most TNA parliamentarians are wary about making mistakes.

They came second in the Jaffna MC elections, and that was not for want of trying to come first. They came first in Vavuniya, but there too, they merely have the larger slice of a pie that has been divided three ways. Others are eating into the TNA base, and if they make just one false move, they could be relegated to a rump. In Sambandan’s case, he’s now pushing eighty, and probably is not too concerned about making mistakes because the present presidential and forthcoming parliamentary election may be his last elections. The other TNA parliamentarians seem to be acutely aware of this fact.

Originally, the split was between Sambandan’s group of four who wanted to support Fonseka, and the others who did not want to support either candidate. This latter group was not advocating a boycott as such - it was more a case of hiding their heads in the sand and refusing to acknowledge the election. They did not advocate the fielding of a Tamil candidate either. The fielding of Sivajilingam as the Tamil candidate by TELO, can be described as a deft piece of political entrepreneurship on their part. A Tamil candidate has come forward at a presidential election only once before in 1982, when Kumar Ponnambalam contested against J.R.Jayewardene and Hector Kobbekaduwa. This gave him a foot hold in Tamil politics which he held till his death. When his son Gagendra Kumar Ponnambalam contested the 2004 parliamentary election in the Jaffna district in 2004, the reason why he came third on the TNA list, with over 60,000 preference votes, well ahead of TNA seniors Suresh Premachandran and Mavai Senathirajah, is obviously because of the name recognition.

Given the fact that Sambandan is on his last lap in politics, a power vacuum is opening up within the TNA which will be filled by the individual or group that has the most recognition. Fielding Sivajilingam as the Tamil candidate, has given TELO the opportunity to seize the day. Sivajilingam is not a name that rings any bells in the south, but he is a veteran of Tamil politics. In 1976, at the age of 18, he became the youngest member of the Tamil United Liberation Front central committee and rubbed shoulders with the giants of Tamil politics like Amirthalingam, Sivasittamparam, Yogeswaran and others.

The reason why he made it to the TULF CC at that age had been because of his phenomenal popularity among the youth of Jaffna. Sivajilingam is of the Karaiyar caste and hails from the Velvettithurai area and is also distantly related to Prabhakaran. He was a founding member of TELO and associated closely with pioneering leaders of the Tamil terrorist movement like Thangathurai, Kuttimani and Jegan. Sivajilingam did not get that many votes at the 2004 parliamentary election. He came in third from the bottom in the Jaffna district with a little over 42,000 votes. In contrast to this, his TELO colleague Selvam Adaikalanathan came first in the Vanni district. Sivajilingam was obviously chosen over Adaikalanathan because of his experience in Tamil politics.

Sivajilingam, is a ‘people’s man’ type of politician. Having studied up to his A/Ls, he later worked for a while in the Highways department as a supervisor. As such he does not represent the Tamil professional/social elite. But how many elitist Tamils are left among the voters of Jaffna? Sivajilingam’s profile probably closely matches that of the voters left in the north. When Kumar Ponnambalam contested as the Tamil candidate in 1982, he got less votes than the combined total of the two mainline party candidates. In Jaffna district he got 87,000 votes as against the combined total of 122,000 for JRJ and Hector Kobbekaduwa. In Vanni it was 11,500 against 56,000 and in Batticaloa, it was over 47,000 against nearly 70,000. If Sivajilingam is able to put up a proportionate showing as against the two main contenders, TELO will be up on the deal, and contesting would have been better than simply sitting passively and pretending that there was no election.

Yet, if it does come to a second count with neither of the main runners getting 50% of the vote, the second preferences count. Will those voting for Sivajilingam express a second preference, and if so for whom? Or will they be divided on this score? Only time will tell but both main candidates are very well aware of the importance of the Tamil votes and are looking to harvest them.

Snags in the campaign

As was to be expected, the joint opposition campaign has not been proceeding too smoothly. The maiden rally of the joint opposition was held in Kandy on the 18th of December and since then, joint opposition meetings have been held in Ambalangoda on the 19th, Anuradhapura on the 21st, Mawanella on the 22nd and Ratnapura on the 23rd. There was to have been a meeting in Amparai, on the 24th, but that was cancelled. Of all these meetings, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe attended only one – the first meeting in Kandy. If anyone was expecting to see the triumphant progress of the opposition candidate as the TV cameras followed him from one district to another, we did not see that last week.

One major reason for this was the absence of the opposition leader on the platforms. The absence of the leader of the main opposition party, diminishes the rally. Besides, as this column pointed out, Wickremesinghe is now the most forceful speaker on the opposition platform and without him, there’s little for the TV cameras to pick up for the news broadcasts. Even at the North Central Province and Sabaragamuwa provincial council elections, news broadcasters largely ignored the two UNP candidates Janaka Perera and Ranjan Ramanayake and reported mainly what Wickremesinghe said. The problem with newcomers to politics is that they tend to be uninspiring speakers and to repeat themselves all the time. Sarath Fonseka in this respect, is no different to Janaka Perera and Ramanayaka. There’s nothing new in what Fonseka says at these meetings, and it would be impossible to give the same coverage to what the opposition candidate says in the news broadcasts day after day, as that would be a monotonous repetition of what was said at the previous meeting.

Why then is Wickremesinghe not attending these joint opposition rallies to liven things up a bit for the media, one may ask. The first reason could of course be that Fonseka’s victory would mean the end of Wickremesinghe’s own career and one cannot reasonably expect him to dig his own grave by working too hard for Fonseka. Wickremesinghe has absolutely nothing to gain from this election. The JVP announced early on that Wickremesinghe would not be appointed the prime minister of the caretaker government that would be formed after Fonseka won, mainly in order to avoid the very damaging accusation that they were exerting themselves to bring Wickremesinghe into power. Since the common aim was to abolish the executive presidency and revert to a prime ministerial form of government, the appointment of Wickremesinghe as the prime minister would be tantamount to handing over power to him. Because of the JVP’s ideological and political differences with the UNP and the past history of massacring one another’s activists, the JVP cannot afford to be seen pasting posters and canvassing for a political project that brings Wickremesinghe into power.

When the JVP was challenged by the press, they denied that Wickremesinghe would be the prime minister of the caretaker government that Fonseka would form before holding the parliamentary election. Wickremesinghe too for his part, made a public declaration that he was not interested in the premiership of a caretaker government. At this point, Fonseka should have made a public statement saying that whatever anybody may say, Wickremesinghe was going to be the prime minister of his caretaker government as the leader of the largest opposition party. But Fonseka kept quiet and said nothing. So now there’s nothing in this election for Wickremesinghe. He’ll have neither the presidency nor the premiership although he is on record saying he aspires to be prime minister after the parliamentary election which will follow the presidential contest.

There were mumblings last week to the effect that UNP regional organizers were not working hard enough for the joint opposition candidate. There’s nothing surprising in this either. Unlike the JVP, UNP regional leaders and even the rank and file tend to think of themselves first. Having Sarath Fonseka may titillate their anti-government sentiments and may motivate them to hold forth at bus stops and do a little jig on the street, but to actually go out and exert themselves for the common opposition candidate, they will need something more concrete. This column pointed out quite early on that, unless Fonseka can assure each and every UNP regional leader personally, that he will be well looked after, they are not going to put their best foot forward. They’ll do the minimum and not the maximum.

Even a UNP leader would have had to touch base personally with the party’s regional satraps if he expected their cooperation and dedication. Every man has to feel that there is something in it for him. However, any such hopes have been taken away from the UNP. The only thing that is in this election for the UNP is the satisfaction of rubbing Mahinda’s snout on the ground and the probability that a defeat for MR would improve the prospects of the UNP. But in a situation where both the presidency and premiership would be in the hands of other opposition figures in the event of a Fonseka victory, the thought has begun to cross the minds of the UNP that victory may not benefit them much after all. These obviously are the reasons for the sagging enthusiasm in the opposition campaign.

Another story that went around last week, was that the joint opposition campaign was short of money. That is a near impossibility. Even the SLFP, during their worst days in the 1980s, always had sufficient campaign funds. There was always some left over – enough for the party to live off until the next election. In this case, when the opposition had at last found a candidate who could give MR a run for his money, sacks of cash should be coming in. If money is short, then someone has been siphoning it away. In the case of the UNP, they have no incentive to give the money they receive to the common campaign because they will need every cent they get for the parliamentary election that is to soon follow. If Fonseka wins this election, the caretaker government he forms will not have a UNP prime minister.

So in the post-election scenario there’ll be the government led by Fonseka and the prime minister, then there’ll be the opposition which will be the UPFA and the UNP will have to contest as a third party scrambling to defeat both the government and the UPFA to get at the executive prime minsitership. To manage this, the UNP will need every cent it gets, which is probably why the money has been disappearing.

The strains show

The UNP also seems to be acutely aware that there could be a dissolution of parliament at any moment, even before the presidential election is held. Since the UNP will get neither the presidency nor the premiership from this election, what matters to them is the parliamentary election after which they will be able to make a bid for the premiership. The UNP and its allies have begun holding their own meetings around the country. This started with the exclusively UNF rally in Matara on 20/12, which was attended by Wickremesinghe even though he did not attend the joint opposition meeting the previous day in Ambalangoda or the one in Anuradhapura the following day. Wickremesighe was scheduled to address the joint opposition meeting in Homagama yesterday, (We went to press before the meeting was held) and it was easy to see why – there were two UNF meetings scheduled in Horana and Agalawatte on the same day. Wickremesinghe could not be seen in Horana without attending the joint rally in Homagama. Even though he would attend the Homagama joint opposition meeting, it will be interesting to see how many joint opposition meetings Wickremesinghe will attend in the days and weeks ahead.

Two joint opposition rallies have been scheduled for today in Hatton and Kundasale, in Badulla and Balangoda tomorrow, Hingurakgoda and Kantale the day after, Dambulla on 30/12, Baticaloa/Amparai on 5 January, Muttur/Trinco on 6/1, Chilaw 7/1, Beruwela/Kaduwela on 8/1, Pelmadulla/Avissawella on 9/1 and so on. One positive thing is that the UNP has managed to prevent the JVP from dominating these joint rallies the way they did the first rally in Kandy. At the Ambalangoda rally the UNP also had taken steps to decorate the town in green; but the JVP cadres had brought red banners with them and therefore red still prevailed over green. It was the same at the Anuradhapura joint rally. It was only at the Mawanella rally that the green eclipsed the red as it should. Kabir Hashim apparently had not only put up green decorations, but had also ensured that UNPers brought green flags to the venue with them.

Presumably that pattern would prevail at future meetings, because the instinct for self preservation has manifested itself in the UNP’s regional organizers with the jitters over the impending parliamentary election which could be upon them at any moment.

This election campaign has been becoming a farce with each passing day. Last week, there was the rather amusing spectacle of the JVP’s Dambara Amila Thero trying to justify Fonseka’a lack of political experience by saying that one did not need long years of experience to get into politics, and comparing him to two others who entered politics recently. The two examples that the monk came up with, were Anarkali and Sashindra Rajapakse the former a cutie in her early twenties and the latter in his early thirties. If even his most ardent supporters can only come up with such comparisons, then Fonseka’s goose is cooked.

Much more damaging than this, was JVP parliamentarian K.D.Lal Kantha’s public statement that had Sarath Fonseka actually made that statement to the Sunday Leader about Gotabhaya Rajapakse, having ordered the shooting of LTTE leaders without allowing them to surrender, that would indeed be tantamount to treachery. Lal Kantha was banking on the Sunday Leader editor not having a recording of what had been said. However, the editor had made a statement to Ada Derana saying that she did have the tape with her – where then does this leave Fonseka? The newspaper carried a Fonseka clarification the Sunday after the original controversial interview appeared. It had no editor’s note.

Last Thursday, Sirasa TV broadcast an interview with Fonseka. It was a pre-recorded interview where he sought to answer some of the allegations hurled against him by the government. Undoubtedly, it was one of the most entertaining interviews ever given by a presidential candidate in this country. This election campaign has become interesting in a ‘Paalama Yata’ kind of way. When two basket women hurl invective against one another on the street, even educated people momentarily forget their refinement and drop everything to listen. Invective has always been a part of politics. But never has invective become more personal than this at an election.