Parliament is expected to be dissolved anytime soon and polls will be held within weeks. The next general election will be of crucial importance. It is a worrisome proposition for the Opposition licking its wounds in the aftermath of a crushing electoral defeat; the ruling coalition will find it a formidable challenge, having won the executive presidency for a second time. The Opposition will have to perform nothing short of a miracle to capture power in Parliament and the government faces the task of having not only to secure a comfortable majority in Parliament––which is not likely to be a problem as such––but also to live up to people's expectations which President Mahinda Rajapaksa's recent victory has raised staggeringly.

The President opted for a premature parliamentary election for two main reasons. It was he who had been winning elections for the UPFA and he knew it would be advantageous for his government to go for a presidential election first and make the most of his popularity––or make hay while the sun shines. He wanted to debilitate the Opposition and then secure a comfortable majority in Parliament. Secondly, he was wary of introducing drastic changes he is said to be contemplating such as downsizing the Cabinet ahead of a presidential election after winning parliamentary polls. If the UPFA had won a parliamentary election first, he would have had to depend on his newly elected parliamentarians for his re-election and to reward them with ministerial portfolios so as to hold his flock together. Had he downsized his Cabinet after winning a general election, he would not have had most of his ambitious MPs around to help him with his re-election; they would have voted with their feet!

Now that he has secured a second term and enfeebled the UNP, the JVPand their allies to the extent of being in disarray, President Rajapaksa can rest assured that the MPs of his next government will be wary of committing political hara-kiri by defecting to an Opposition in the wilderness even if they are denied Cabinet portfolios. However, the size of the Cabinet won't be his only worry. Among the daunting tasks before him are formulating a homegrown devolution model as promised, granting dividends of peace to people, building the economy, rebuilding the former war zone, battling corruption, curtailing waste, creating jobs and the like. The President will certainly have to move beyond his comfort zone to deliver the goods in the post-war period.

The Opposition which sought to turn the tables on the government with the help of Gen. Sarath Fonseka must now be wondering how to try to win a general election in spite of him! It blundered by putting all its political eggs in Fonseka's basket, which President Rajapaksa smashed up in one go. What will the UNP do with Fonseka now?

The UNP cannot coalesce with the JVP to accommodate Fonseka in a common alliance. These two parties are poles apart in every respect and on no grounds could they reconcile their capitalist and socialist agendas and come under one banner seeking a popular mandate to rule the country. Nor could the UNP create a special slot for Fonseka, who, having aspired to presidency, is not likely to settle for less. Whether he is willing to swallow his pride, play second fiddle to UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and contest the forthcoming general election on the UNF ticket as a member of either the UNP or any other party in the coalition is anyone's guess. He who pursues the stag, they say, regards not the hare!

Contrary to speculation in political circles, Fonseka may not want to contest on the JVP ticket if he is in his proper senses. For, the JVP is bound to be reduced to a virtual nonentity at the next general election and joining it at this particular juncture is like boarding a sinking schooner. Worse, Fonseka is now without even the Swan symbol, which belongs to a constituent party of the UNF. The UNP will never allow that symbol to be used by Fonseka at parliamentary polls separately because the Swan in the fray will only cause a split in the vote of the Elephant much to the advantage of the government.

Meanwhile, what really troubles the voting public is something else: Will the government and the Opposition give them a Hobson's choice by fielding the same bunch of politicians they are fed up with or will there be a difference this time around?