By S Venkat Narayan
Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, February 7: Barring last-minute hitches, India is confident of procuring a non-permanent seat on the 15-member UN Security Council (UNSC) representing the Asian region after an 18-year gap, according to official sources here. 

The UNSC comprises five permanent members with veto powers (USA, UK, China, Russia and France), and ten non-permanent members (two from each of the five continents). The non-permanent members serve a two-year term and retire, making room for other nations from their respective continents to get elected with a two-thirds majority in the UN General Assembly (UNGA).

India’s confidence got a boost on 20 January, when visiting Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Tun Abdul Razak met Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in New Delhi and promised his country’s support for India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UNSC.

Razak’s assurance means that Malaysia has now broken ranks from members of the Pakistan-sponsored "Coffee Club" that has been opposed to India becoming an UNSC permanent member. India, Brazil, Germany and Japan formed a group (G-4) to lobby for permanent seats on the UNSC nearly a decade ago.

Out of the 10 non-permanent members on the UNSC, Japan and Lebanon currently represent Asia. Japan’s two-year term ends on 31 December 2010. India and Kazakhstan have been canvassing for support to take the seat being vacated by Japan.

Election for the Asian quota seat is due in mid-October 2010 in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). The new member assumes its seat in the UNSC on 1 January 2011 and its term expires on 31 December 2012.

Islamic Kazakhstan was causing much worry for India by claiming support of Muslim-majority countries that broke away from the former Soviet Union and now call themselves the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC), and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).  

Much to India’s delight, surprise and relief, Kazakhstan recently issued a note verbale,  or a diplomatic memorandum, saying it is withdrawing from the race to focus on its other multilateral responsibilities.

The tide began turning in India’s favour after Germany from the European group and Ukraine from the CIS block agreed to support India. Now, with Malaysia, an influential member of OIC and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), breaking ranks with the so-called Coffee Club by coming forward to support India for the non-permanent seat as well, India is virtually guaranteed the much-coveted seat.

However, Indian diplomats are keeping their fingers crossed for two reasons.

Even though no other country is expected to announce its candidacy from the 49-member Asian block, nothing prevents any member-state to throw its hat in the ring until up to the actual vote in the UNGA in mid-October, 2010.

Even if India goes to the election without a rival, it will still need to secure two-thirds of the votes in the UNGA, where the electoral college comprises all the 192 member countries.

However, India is confident that it can manage to secure more than the 128 votes it actually needs. There is already a consensus within the Asian group, and it is quite unusual that the consensus candidate fails to get the majority’s endorsement in the UNGA.

Diplomats at India’s Permanent Mission to the UN in New York are burning much midnight oil to ensure that nothing goes wrong until the voting day. It is also banking on the support of its friends in Africa and the Americas.

India’s excellent bilateral relations with Kazakhstan in general, and with its President Nursultan Nazarbayev in particular, have persuaded the central Asian country’s policy-makers to pull out from the race, and thus pave the way for India to get onboard the UNGA. The president was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade in New Delhi on 26 January 2009, considered a rare honour for a foreign head of state.

  The Coffee Club at the UN, also known as "Uniting for Consensus," was formed by a group of nations that oppose G-4 members from getting permanent seats with veto powers on the UNSC for some reason or the other. It has as its members some countries that are inimical to their neighbouring countries or rivals for regional and global influence becoming permanent members of the UNSC.

While Pakistan opposes its traditional rival India, Italy and Spain oppose Germany, South Korea opposes Japan, while Argentina and Mexico oppose Brazil. Its other members include Costa Rica, Malta, Turkey and, till recently, Malaysia.