A top economist says South Asia should prepare itself to face another food crisis and learn from the mistakes it made when a global food crisis hit the region, home to a majority of the world’s poor, in early 2008.

A recent study, published in a book titled Promoting Regional Co-operation in South Asia said prices of rice and wheat increased by 165 percent and 89 percent respectively between April 2007 and April 2008. A World Bank study showed that the number of poor people around the world increased to 105 million from 73 million as a result of this food crisis.

According to the study, in South Asia about a billion people live on less than US$ 2 a day, slightly below the US$ 1 poverty line, and the increase in global food prices is estimated to have pushed many of them into poverty.

An Asian Development Bank simulation, the study said, highlighted that a 10 percent increase in food prices can push eight million people into poverty in urban India, while for Pakistan the number is 7.05 million.

High food prices, coupled with high petroleum prices that year, caused many countries in South Asia to experience high inflation (28.2 percent in Sri Lanka in June 2008), expand fiscal deficits and cause balance of payments problems.

Since then, however, food prices have come down to manageable levels. But economists warn that things could change once the global economy begins to recover and the spending-power of consumers increases.

Already there are signs emerging that food prices could increase. Inflation data for the past few months in Sri Lanka have suggested that global food prices are picking up, slightly.

"Don’t be mistaken. The food crisis has not gone away, it will come again," warned Ejaz Ghani, Economic Advisor, South Asia Region, World Bank, speaking at the launch of ‘Promoting Regional Cooperation in South Asia’ last Monday in Colombo.

"The question is whether or not next time around South Asia is going to take a unilateral decision to do away with protectionist trade policies," Ghani said.

Economists in the region, and elsewhere, agree that trade protectionism in agricultural produce made them the global food crisis even worse.

"India imposed export bans and so did Pakistan and this freaked-out the entire region," Ghani said.

Many of the region’s economists have said that better, deeper cooperation between countries in South Asia could help establish food security in the region, and together face external shocks.