NPC elections
– possible scenario


Judging by media disclosures, the main focus today, locally as well as internationally, is the Northern Provincial Council elections scheduled for September.

It is clear that strong opposition is building up. Groups outside the government as well as within have openly begun to express concern particularly in view of the land and police powers enshrined in the 13th Amendment. The government is also conscious of the dangers. It is confronted with virtually an insurmountable practical dilemma. India pressurized by Tamil Nadu is insisting on its pound of flesh and CHOGM is round the corner. Even a postponement seems impossible.

But a democratically- elected Northern Provincial Council, paving the way for a politically negotiated (or even pressurized by economic sanctions) Eelam, has become a clear and present danger.

Against this backdrop, it can be reasonably expected that the NPC election will follow the likes of the DDC elections of 1981. The disruption of the September poll is a clear possibility. Local groups, such as, the NFF and the JHU have already shown their hand. But my prediction is that it will be disrupted by an unidentifiable force engineered by India. Anyone who has read my book, Memorable Tidbits including the Jaffna Library Fire (ISBN 978-955-9712510 - 2013) will know how RAW got involved in the disruption of the 1981 DDC elections.

By the end of the ‘70’s the relations between India and Sri Lanka were far from cordial. JR had even most undiplomatically made an insulting reference to the Congress Party symbol. India did not certainly want a regime in Jaffna close to the centre controlled by President Jayewardene. RAW had been given the task of disrupting the election.

In page 333 of this book mentioned above, I have written, "A highly disturbing prospect for RAW was the emergence of a democratic Eelam with elected leaders. RAW was of the view that such a development would not only lead to separatist repercussions in Tamil Nadu but also provide a bulwark to India’s avowed ambition to be the sole and undisputed power in the Indian Ocean".

The geo-political reality is even more relevant today with many leaders in Tamil Nadu openly pedaling the pro-LTTE line and the state government daggers drawn with the coalition at the centre.

The coming into existence of a Tamil Eelam will certainly be to the detriment of India. Arrogant and powerful India riding high in South Asia is capable of ruthlessly but subtly nipping in the bud any tendencies for the emergence of even a semi-autonomous province in the North of Sri Lanka.

The Northern Provincial Council will be derailed by RAW. Many will pooh-pooh this as bunkum. However, I am confident that our intelligence services would already have assessed this grave possibility and warned the government.

Edward Gunawardena


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